However, I would say this is more about the fast growth in job ads in 2021 after the COVID lockdown than about the decline of job ads in 2023.   In other words, the “froth has come off” the market rather than a major downturn. This is confirmed when comparing current numbers to job ads in April 2019 (Pre-COVID). Total job ads are 15% higher. 

So the market is still fairly strong. But, considering New Zealand's net migration figures currently are at a net surplus of 65,000 people year to date (with a predicted year end gain of 100,000 people) the question is, where have 65,000 people gone?

Well it looks like they have found jobs. As highlighted in recent article in Stuff, FILLED JOB data (i.e., companies who have found people for jobs) is UP 3.8% year on year. Drilling into the data shows the big increases in FILLED JOBS were in accommodation and food services, transport postal and warehousing. So it's fair to suggest that the international backpackers have returned; restaurants are getting chefs and waitstaff; and the warehouses are getting labour.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300891723/migration-boom-credited-with-driving-strong-jobs-growth

Good news perhaps. BUT, is that the whole picture?  Where are the highly skilled migrants? It seems they are not arriving in numbers so the skilled end of the market is still under pressure. We are seeing proof of this in candidate behaviour; they are still pushing for increases in remuneration and we are still seeing counter offers for high quality people. From my perspective, the only things that can change are;

1. Candidates becoming increasingly concerned about the economy and deciding to stay in their current position, even if the offer of new employment is potentially better, or
   
   
2. Companies not replacing people who have left, effectively decreasing staff levels.

So you might ask, who will blink first?